The National Excess

On April 10, 2008, BLM released an updated Fact Sheet on the Wild Horse & Burro Program, which included a national population estimate of 29,000 wild horses and burros as of February 28, 2007. (The population cited in the National Herd Statistics was actually 28,563).

By June, BLM released a new national population estimate of 33,105 wild horses and burros as of February 28, 2008 according to their National Herd Statistics data.

As of May 1, 2009, BLM now estimates over 36,000 wild horses and burros are still roaming free on the range as of February 28, 2009.

So let’s follow the numbers since their February 28, 2007 report to see how BLM arrived at their newest estimate of over 36,000. Note: BLM does not remove wild horses between 3/01 and 6/30 to allow for foaling season.


Fiscal Year 2007
National Reported Population as of 2/28/07............. 28,563
+20% Foaling Rate (3/01/07 thru 6/30/07)............. + 5,712 Foals
Total Estimated Population as of 7/01/07................. 34,275
Minus Reported Removals from 3/01/07 thru 2/28/08... - 7,107
Remaining WH&B National Population as of 3/01/08..... 27,168


Yet instead of reporting wild horse and burro populations totaling 27,168 as of 3/01/08, BLM instead reported 33,105 wild horses and burros still remained on the range, almost 6,000 more than a 20% reproduction rate and their removal numbers could actually support.

So based on this almost 6,000 wild horse and burro “magical” increase, what happened to this year’s numbers?


Fiscal Year 2008
National Reported Population as of 2/28/08.............33,105
+20% Foaling Rate (3/01/08 thru 6/30/08)............. + 6,620 Foals
Total Estimated Population as of 7/01/08................. 39,725
Minus Reported Removals from 7/01/08 thru 2/28/09... - 4,930
Remaining WH&B National Population as of 3/01/08..... 34,775

It still doesn’t add up to “over 36,000” as is currently being estimated but admittedly, it is close (of course that depends on what BLM eventually determines how much “over” 36,000 means…)

So what would national wild horse and burro populations look like if that extra 6,000 wasn’t added to the national populations back in February 2008? Let’s look at an Alternative national wild horse and burro population estimate based on what should have been left on 2/28/08 instead of what BLM reported with the almost 6,000 extra wild horses and burros.


2008 Alternative National WH&B Population Estimate
National Reported Population as of 2/28/08............. 27,168
+20% Foaling Rate (3/01/08 thru 6/30/08)............. + 5,433 Foals
Total Estimated Population as of 7/01/08................. 32,601
Minus Reported Removals from 7/01/07 thru 2/28/08... - 4,930
Remaining WH&B National Population as of 3/01/08..... 27,671


By adding the almost 6,000 extra wild horses and burros to the February 28, 2008 national population estimate and at least an additional 1,000 more this year, BLM is reporting a national estimate of over 8,300 wild horses and burros than their previous reports can support.

And this pattern goes back all the way to 2001…..

Is anybody else doing the math or asking questions about this or am I the only one?

By the way, the National Allowable Management Level for wild horses and burros has dropped yet again, down from 27,219 in 2008 to an approximate 26,600 based on the May 1, 2009 BLM Fact Sheet.

Click Here to View BLM Fact Sheet – May 2009


Wild horse born in BLM holding facility taken from BLM Internet Adoption Site.

*Removal Statistics Taken from Fiscal Year 2007 and 2008 Final Gather Schedule courtesy of BLM National Program Office and BLM Wild Horse & Burro Program website, Monthly Review of National Wild Horse & Burro Program available at: http://www.blm.gov/wo/st/en/prog/wild_horse_and_burro/monthly_review_of.html